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home / centre for automotive safety research / Publications / List / Details Publication Details| Title | Estimation of the crash rates of vehicles considering vehicle age, crash period and vehicle cohort | | Authors | Anderson RWG | | Year | 2013 | | Type | Conference Paper | | Abstract | What will the future crash rate be of a vehicle built today? Or one built 5 years ago, or in 3 years time? Such questions are relevant to the costs and benefits of new safety technology, and to understanding future crash risks more generally. They are also a key to distilling the effect of vehicle safety from other factors in road safety. Crash rates have a few important dimensions; when viewed along these dimensions, the underlying patterns in the rates provide a means of estimating present and future crash rates of vehicles. These dimensions are:
• the age of the vehicle, because it relates to factors including vehicle kilometres travelled, typical driver age etc., • the period (calendar year) being considered, because it relates to factors including prevailing levels of compliance, changes to infrastructure, the characteristics of other vehicles in the fleet, and • the cohort (year of manufacture) to which the vehicle belongs, as it relates to levels of crashworthiness and primary safety. Analagous age-period-cohort data are also used in public health research to study trends in the rates of disease. In this study, tables were constructed to allow age-period-cohort vehicle data to be assembled from mass crash data. The tables were used to impute crash rates by cohort and by period, and the present value of those crashes. Rates are imputed for passenger vehicles and for heavy vehicles built between 1999 and 2009 and by projection to 2020. The results suggest that large reductions in crash rates may be expected for future cohorts of vehicles. | | Conference Name | Road Safety Research, Policing and Education Conference 2013 | | Conference Abbreviation | RSR 2013 | | Conference Location | Brisbane | | Conference Date | 28-30 August 2013 | | Notes | Access full text: http://acrs.org.au/publications/conference-papers/database/ |
| Reference | | Anderson RWG (2013). Estimation of the crash rates of vehicles considering vehicle age, crash period and vehicle cohort. Road Safety Research, Policing and Education Conference 2013, Brisbane, 28-30 August 2013. |
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