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Publication Details

TitleEstimation of the crash rates of vehicles considering vehicle age, crash period and vehicle cohort
AuthorsAnderson RWG
TypeConference Paper
AbstractWhat will the future crash rate be of a vehicle built today? Or one built 5 years ago, or in 3 years time? Such questions are relevant to the costs and benefits of new safety technology, and to understanding future crash risks more generally. They are also a key to distilling the effect of vehicle safety from other factors in road safety. Crash rates have a few important dimensions; when viewed along these dimensions, the underlying patterns in the rates provide a means of estimating present and future crash rates of vehicles. These dimensions are:

the age of the vehicle, because it relates to factors including vehicle kilometres travelled, typical driver age etc., the period (calendar year) being considered, because it relates to factors including prevailing levels of compliance, changes to infrastructure, the characteristics of other vehicles in the fleet, and the cohort (year of manufacture) to which the vehicle belongs, as it relates to levels of crashworthiness and primary safety. Analagous age-period-cohort data are also used in public health research to study trends in the rates of disease. In this study, tables were constructed to allow age-period-cohort vehicle data to be assembled from mass crash data. The tables were used to impute crash rates by cohort and by period, and the present value of those crashes. Rates are imputed for passenger vehicles and for heavy vehicles built between 1999 and 2009 and by projection to 2020. The results suggest that large reductions in crash rates may be expected for future cohorts of vehicles.

Conference NameRoad Safety Research, Policing and Education Conference 2013
Conference AbbreviationRSR 2013
Conference LocationBrisbane
Conference Date28-30 August 2013
NotesAccess full text:

Anderson RWG (2013) 'Estimation of the crash rates of vehicles considering vehicle age, crash period and vehicle cohort', Road Safety Research, Policing and Education Conference 2013, Brisbane, 28-30 August 2013.

Files Available for Download
CASREstimationOfCrashRates1357.pdfPDF from conference website