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Publication Details

TitleThe trade off between the probabilities of the two types of prediction error: how to linearise the graph
AuthorsHutchinson TP
Year2006
TypeConference Paper
AbstractThe ROC (receiver operating characteristic) is a graphical technique that can be applied to comparing predictive scores of entities that failed and those that survived. (For example, these might be businesses becoming bankrupt, consumers not paying their debts, or nation states descending into civil war.) It is a technique adapted from signal detection theory within the field of the psychology of perception. For a given method of prediction, there is a trade-off between the proportion of failed entities predicted to survive and the proportion of surviving entities predicted to fail. This paper shows how the ROC may be transformed to an approximate straight line. The slope and intercept of this are easily interpreted.
ISBN0975189220
Conference Name2nd International Conference of the Australasian Business and Behavioural Sciences Association
Conference LocationAdelaide, Australia
Conference Date29 September - 1 October 2006
Page Count15

Reference
Hutchinson TP (2006) 'The trade off between the probabilities of the two types of prediction error: how to linearise the graph', 2nd International Conference of the Australasian Business and Behavioural Sciences Association, Adelaide, Australia, 29 September - 1 October 2006.