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THE UNIVERSITY OF ADELAIDE
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Publication Details

TitleUse of Age-Period-Cohort models to estimate effects of vehicle age, year of crash and year of vehicle manufacture on driver injury and fatality rates in single vehicle crashes in New South Wales, 2003-2010
AuthorsAnderson RWG, Searson DJ
Year2014
TypeJournal Article
AbstractA novel application of age-period-cohort methods are used to explain changes in vehicle based crash rates in New South Wales, Australia over the period 2003-2010. Models are developed using vehicle age, crash period and vehicle cohort to explain changes in the rate of single-vehicle driver fatalities and injuries. The risk of crashing increases with vehicle age. Declines in risk are associated with vehicle cohorts (i.e. vehicle safety improvements) since 1996, accelerating to 12 percent per vehicle cohort year for cohorts since 2004. Period effects (i.e. other road safety measures) appear to have contributed to declines of up to about two percent per annum to the driver-fatality single-vehicle crash rate, and possibly only negligible improvements to the driver-injury single vehicle crash rate. Vehicle improvements appear to have been responsible for a decline in per-vehicle crash risk of at least three percent per calendar year for both severity levels over the same period. Given the acceleration in the decline in risk associated with more recent vehicle cohorts, continued declines in per-vehicle crash risk over coming years are almost certain.
Journal TitleAccident Analysis & Prevention
Journal Volume (Issue)75
Page Range202-210
NotesAccess article here: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0001457514003492

Reference
Anderson RWG, Searson DJ (2014) 'Use of Age-Period-Cohort models to estimate effects of vehicle age, year of crash and year of vehicle manufacture on driver injury and fatality rates in single vehicle crashes in New South Wales, 2003-2010', Accident Analysis & Prevention, 75, pp 202-210.